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Recibido: 2025-02-25 Aceptado: 2025-04-17
Página 1006
Current trends of international financial organizations
during a large-scale war in Europe. New international
security policies in the European Union
Kolisnichenko, Paulina
1
Correo: paulina.kolisnichenko@wshiu.pl
Orcid: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6730-1236
DOI: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.15337413
Abstract
Through a documentary research design, supported by open-ended interviews with
two security and defense specialists, and within the theoretical framework of
critical geopolitics and political economy, the objective of the research is to
interpret (hermeneutically) the narratives and contexts that shape the new security
policies in the European Union, in order to determine the meaning and scope of
the current trends of its financial organizations during a large-scale war in Europe.
From this objective, questions such as: What financial capabilities does Europe
require to sustain its defensive autonomy in the face of a protracted conflict on its
territory? How do post-Russian invasion threat perceptions influence the
investment and modernization strategies of the European military sector? The
results obtained led to the conclusion that peace in Europe will depend on the
ability to build a collective security financial architecture based on three basic
pillars: algorithmic transparency in military procurement; intelligent
collectivization of defense debt; and harmonized taxation of economic activities
in border territories.
Keywords: security and defense, financial organizations, large-scale warfare,
Poland, European Union.
1
PhD of Economics, Vice Rector for International Cooperation, WSHIU Academy of Applied Sciences,
Poznan, Poland.
Sección: Artículo científico 2025, julio-diciembre, año 5, No. 10, 1006-1034
Clío. Revista de Historia, Ciencias Humanas y Pensamiento Crítico
ISSN: 2660-9037 / Provincia de Pontevedra - España
Kolisnichenko, Paulina
Current trends of international financial
organizations during a large-scale war in
Europe. New international security policies in
the European Union
Página 1007
Nuevas políticas de seguridad internacional en la Unión Europea.
Tendencias actuales de las organizaciones financieras durante una
guerra a gran escala en Europa.
Resumen
Mediante un diseño de investigación documental, sustentado en entrevistas
abiertas a dos especialistas en seguridad y defensa, y en el marco teórico de la
geopolítica crítica y de la economía política, el objetivo de la investigación
consiste en interpretar (hermenéuticamente) las narrativas y contextos que
configuran las nuevas políticas de seguridad en la Unión Europea, para determinar
el sentido y alcance de las tendencias actuales de sus organizaciones financieras
durante una guerra a gran escala en Europa. De este objetivo se formularon
preguntas como: ¿Qué capacidades financieras requiere Europa para sostener su
autonomía defensiva ante un conflicto prolongado en su territorio? ¿Cómo
influyen las percepciones de amenaza postinvasión rusa en las estrategias de
inversión y modernización del sector militar europeo? Los resultados obtenidos
permitieron concluir que, la paz en Europa dependerá de la capacidad para
construir una arquitectura financiera de seguridad colectiva basada en tres pilares
básicos: transparencia algorítmica en la contratación militar; colectivización
inteligente de la deuda defensiva, y fiscalidad armonizada para actividades
económicas en territorios fronterizos.
Palabras clave: seguridad y defensa, organizaciones financieras, guerra a gran
escala, Polonia, Unión Europea.
Exordium
Indeed, Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 radically transformed
the European security landscape, forcing political and intellectual elites to
reconsider their energy and defence priorities. In the words of Wójtowicz (2024),
Russian military aggression triggered unprecedented instability in European
energy markets, generating significant economic difficulties for EU EU countries,
including an increase in inflation in all member states.
Clío. Revista de Historia, Ciencias Humanas y Pensamiento Crítico
ISSN: 2660-9037 / Provincia de Pontevedra - España
Kolisnichenko, Paulina
Current trends of international financial
organizations during a large-scale war in
Europe. New international security policies in
the European Union
Página 1008
In this context of increasing entropy, the main priority of the EU's energy
policy has become the security and stability of energy supply, consequently
developing strategies to reduce dependence on unfriendly suppliers such as
Russia. This paradigm shift has prompted European institutions to develop
effective measures to improve security in general, considering that these actions
are crucial to ensure comprehensive stability of the old continent in the long term.
According to Lautman (2024), Donald Trump's narrative has intensified
concerns about the stability of the transatlantic security architecture. In February
2024, Trump claimed, for example, that he would not protect European countries
that fail to meet their "defense spending obligations" and that he would even
"encourage" Russia to do "whatever it wants" with them. As one might assume,
these controversial claims sent a great deal of worry and fear across Europe,
adding to the concerns of NATO allies already nervous about Russian
warmongering. Trump's apparent willingness to systematically reach out to
Vladimir Putin sends a disturbing message about the future of European security.
In any case, this new rhetoric underlines the strategic urgency of addressing the
new dangers affecting continental democratic institutions and, therefore,
generating high-level political and academic debates on European strategic
autonomy as a complementary pillar to NATO.
In this order of ideas, the objective of this research is to interpret
(hermeneutically) the narratives and contexts that shape the new security policies
in the European Union, to determine the meaning and scope of the current trends
of its financial organizations during a large-scale war in Europe. This analysis is
framed by critical geopolitics, interested in the process by which the EU
discursively constructs its "threats", identifies its strategic objectives and, at the
Clío. Revista de Historia, Ciencias Humanas y Pensamiento Crítico
ISSN: 2660-9037 / Provincia de Pontevedra - España
Kolisnichenko, Paulina
Current trends of international financial
organizations during a large-scale war in
Europe. New international security policies in
the European Union
Página 1009
same time, implements policy responses to act jointly in the face of reality. Three
geostrategic questions arise from this objective: How do perceptions of the post-
Russian invasion threat influence investment and modernization strategies in the
European military sector? How would the possible reconfiguration of NATO
affect the financing mechanisms for European collective security? And, what
financial capacities does Europe require to sustain its defensive autonomy in the
face of a prolonged conflict on its territory?
In the words of Spangsdorf (2020), the new trends in the collective
construction of security policies for the European Union and its partners reflect a
profound change in the ontological representation of the European "I", which has
gone from being considered "safe" to feeling "under objective threat". This
symbolic transformation has generated binary security logics that seek to reinforce
the "ontological security" of the EU, dependent on stable discourses that project a
"civilized us" versus "threatening others" onto social representations.
Well into the 21st century, the construction and development of a
geopolitical power bloc within the EU means at every moment of its current
history the promotion of a structure for security governance, thus reflecting and
facilitating defence processes that have progressively converged, allowing the EU
to discursively identify threats and initiate effective political responses. The
multidimensional security discourse involves representing various threats to
different material and symbolic referents, configuring a "new paradigm of
European external action" that seeks to protect not only territories, but also, and
most importantly, the collective values and identities that define the European way
of life.
Clío. Revista de Historia, Ciencias Humanas y Pensamiento Crítico
ISSN: 2660-9037 / Provincia de Pontevedra - España
Kolisnichenko, Paulina
Current trends of international financial
organizations during a large-scale war in
Europe. New international security policies in
the European Union
Página 1010
The author of this article states that European defensive autonomy is
presented as a strategic requirement in the face of possible aggression from
external factors such as Russia, the economic war in development or the radical
transformation of the current world order, due to the decline of US hegemony. The
current conflicts, as observed in Ukraine, demonstrate how technological
innovations such as logistics powered by artificial intelligence, cloud computing,
cybersecurity, electronic interference, decentralized energy, and low-cost drones
are redefining contemporary warfare, as Bonefeld-Dahl (2024) argues.
In this context, NATO and the EU are at an existential crossroads where the
rapid adoption of cutting-edge technologies will determine their strategic
advantage at a time when a technological race is unfolding between autocratic and
democratic regimes, reminiscent of the clash of civilizations of which Huntington
(2001) spoke. The current inescapable reality requires Europe to develop
autonomous defensive capabilities to prevent a large-scale conflict from breaking
out on European territory before 2030, as happened with the first and second world
wars. However, it should not be overlooked that regarding Europe's defence
policy:
The defence market is heavily dominated by large prime contractors –
well-established companies that manage and deliver large-scale
defence contracts. This dynamic leaves limited room for SMEs to gain
traction. Additionally, traditional defence primes often do not specialise
in providing the digital solutions – whether large- small-, or medium-
scale – that are increasingly critical to meeting modern defence
requirements. At the same time, NATO and Allied nations’ ministries
of defence lack established frameworks for engaging with digital
technology providers. (Spangsdorf, 2020, p. 5)
Clío. Revista de Historia, Ciencias Humanas y Pensamiento Crítico
ISSN: 2660-9037 / Provincia de Pontevedra - España
Kolisnichenko, Paulina
Current trends of international financial
organizations during a large-scale war in
Europe. New international security policies in
the European Union
Página 1011
The dialectical relationship between European security policies and the
funds needed to modernize the EU armies linked to NATO has become critical in
the current context. The experts interviewed in this research propose that at least
25% of the Allies' common budgets be invested in emerging technologies such as
artificial intelligence, 5G, quantum technology, safe energy, drone and anti-drone
technology, and next-generation connectivity. This investment requires a
restructuring of traditional institutional lending frameworks, which would allow
for the rapid deployment of significant innovations during the coming crises.
This research is structured in five interconnected parts that address the
complex European security landscape. In the first, the theoretical bases of the
research are described; In the second section, the methodological design is shown,
highlighting the main interpretative models on the phenomenon of security and
defense. The third part is subdivided into several sections that function as an
analysis and discussion of results: here, first, the evolution of European security
policies since the Russian invasion of Ukraine is analyzed; Then; It addresses the
reconfiguration of the European financial sector in response to current geopolitical
challenges, with a particular focus on institutional financing mechanisms for
defence and collective security.
The third section also examines technological transformations in the military
and their financial requirements, considering the technological race between
democratic and autocratic systems. The basic prospective scenarios of the large-
scale conflict in Europe and the financial capabilities necessary for the readiness
and resilience of the bloc's military forces are not omitted. Finally, in the
conclusions of the study, an integrated model of European security governance is
Clío. Revista de Historia, Ciencias Humanas y Pensamiento Crítico
ISSN: 2660-9037 / Provincia de Pontevedra - España
Kolisnichenko, Paulina
Current trends of international financial
organizations during a large-scale war in
Europe. New international security policies in
the European Union
Página 1012
proposed that articulates the strategic, financial and technological dimensions to
guarantee the continent's defensive autonomy before 2030.
1. Theoretical framework
Neorealist theory, developed by Kenneth Waltz (2001), posits that the
international system is anarchic and, therefore, states act as relatively rational
actors that prioritize their survival through the accumulation of relative power. In
the context of European security policies, this approach explains the acceleration
of military expenditures following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, where EU
member states have increased their defence budgets to reach 2% of GDP, aligning
with the demands of NATO (2023). This dynamic of developing military
rearmament reflects the neorealist principle of "balance of power", where the EU
as a geopolitical bloc seeks to counter the Russian threat through greater internal
cohesion and strategic alliances, prioritizing energy autonomy and military-
industrial independence.
From Waltz's (2001) neorealist perspective, European financial
organizations operate as balancing instruments, channelings resources to critical
sectors to reduce dependencies outside the bloc. The European Stability
Mechanism (ESM) has extended its mandate to finance defence infrastructure
projects, while the European Investment Bank (EIB) allocates 45% of its portfolio
to technological security initiatives (Mațoi, 2025). From the neorealist
perspective, these movements respond to the structural logic of an emerging
international system, where the EU and the US compete with autocratic blocs for
global technological and financial hegemony, reinforcing the Waltzian notion that